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Tuesday, June 14
6:00PM


Welcome Reception and Registration
University Center - Karshner Lounge

Wednesday, June 15
8:00AM - 4:00PM

Registration
Natural Resources Building

8:30AM - 9:00AM Opening Remarks    -    Natural Resources 101
Roland Lamberson &
Rollin Richmond, President of HSU
9:00AM - 10:00AM John Goss-Custard
Individual-based models and the management of wading bird and wildfowl populations
Location:  Natural Resources 101
10:00AM - 10:30AM Dave Hankin
Long-term effects of mating practices and size-selective ocean fisheries
on age and sex composition of Chinook salmon returning to hatcheries

Location:  Natural Resources 101
10:30AM - 11:00AM Break
Natural Resources 101
Chair:  Bill Smith
Natural Resources 201
Chair:  Howard Stauffer
11:00AM - 11:30AM Rob Day
Fishery management should consider compensatory processes: responses to fishing in simulated populations
Joe Carroll
A Model for Phenotype Inheritance
11:30AM - 12:00PM Rick McGarvey
Modeling fish stocks by both age and length:  partitioning cohorts into length ‘slices’
Sharon Brown
Modeling Pioneer-Climax Tree Species
12:00PM - 12:30PM Kray Van Kirk
A multi-species population assessment model with three species in the Gulf of Alaska, incorporating a flexible mortality function and a forward time-progression
Tim Lauck
Management Implications of Two Species Interactions in Beverton and Holt Fisheries Dynamics
12:30PM - 1:30PM Lunch Lunch
  Natural Resources 101
Chair:  Sharon Brown
Natural Resources 201
Chair:  Ken Owens
1:30PM - 2:00PM Chris Dugaw
Consequences of Heterogeneous Survival Rates of an Entomopathogenic Nematode
John McManus
The Significance of Schooling in Continuous-Space, Individual-Based Predator-Prey Fish Models
2:00PM - 2:30PM Richard Hall
Linear Programming as a Tool for the Optimal Management of Invasive Species
William Chivers
Spatial effects in an individual-based model of interspecies interaction
2:30PM - 3:00PM Randall Morin
   Spread of Beech Bark Disease in the Eastern United States and its Relationship to Regional Forest Composition
Eric Stewart
Using an Individual-based Model to Reproduce Patterns Observed in Wild and Hatchery Salmonid Interactions
3:00PM - 3:30PM Break Break
3:30PM - 4:00PM Mike Strub
Allometric relationships between large and small scale tree spacing studies
Howard Stauffer
Bayesian Inference and Decision Theory Applied to Adaptive Management of Threatened Species
4:00PM - 4:30PM Michael Fuller
Using Network Analysis to Characterize Forest Structure
Mark Rizzardi
 Generalized Linear and State-space Models for Ordinal-valued Time Series
4:30PM - 5:00PM Gerrit Heil
Natural Resources modeling of heathlands: targets and indicators
Jeffrey Galef
An investigation into the stochastic realm of groundwater modeling and management
 Thursday, June 16
  Natural Resources 101
Chair:  Roland Lamberson
8:30AM - 9:30AM Carlos Castillo-Chavez
Challenges in Epidemiology: The Case of Tuberculosis
9:30AM - 10:00AM Keith Criddle
A state space bioeconomic model of Pacific halibut
10:00AM - 10:30AM Rebecca Campos
Fish for the Future: An Assessment of Fisheries Policies in the Philippines
10:30AM - 11:00AM Break
  Natural Resources 101
Chair:  Sharon Brown
11:00AM - 11:30AM Robert McKelvey
The Incomplete-Information Split-Stream Fish War:
Examining the Implications of Competing Risks and Differing Attitudes toward Risk
11:30AM - 11:45PM Natural Resource Modeling Status Report
Catherine Roberts
11:45PM - 12:30PM

POSTERS
Eileen Cashman
An Evaluation of 2-D Hydraulic Modeling for Clear Creek Restoration
Paul Mann Cunningham
A Sensitivity Analysis of an Individual-based Trout Model
 Ari Kornfeld
Kinetics and some Physiological Implications of the Gravitropic Response
in Oat Shoots (Avena sativa)
Mark Parrish
Simulating the Longitudinal Profile of Bull Creek Watershed
Catherine A. Roberts
Research Partnerships with the Regional Environmental Council, EcoTarium,
and Mass Audubon Society in Worcester MA USA
René Rodríguez Zamora
Modeling Individual Processes in Predator-Prey Interactions using UML and Multi-Agent Systems
Kacee Shryock
A Reaction-Diffusion equation modeling the invasion of the Argentine ant population,
Linepithema humile, at Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve
Robert Gerrity
Modeling Indire
ct Competition
Between Two Predators with a Shared Resource
Nik Hashim Nik Mustapha
Fisheries Modeling Under Open access, Steady State, and Intertemporal Limited Entry Management

12:30PM - 1:30PM Lunch
1:30PM - 5:30PM Bus to Prairie Creek State Park / Redwood National Park
Buses will depart from Jolly Giant Commons at 1:30
5:30PM - 6:30PM Break
6:30PM - 10:00PM Banquet
University Center
Reading by Bill Coles
 Friday, June 17
8:30AM - 9:30AM Steve Railsback
Complex Ecology and Virtual Trout:  Doing Research in a Digital Stream
Natural Resources 101
9:30AM - 10:00AM J.A. Tyler
Modeling flow-dependent fish habitat in the Lower Muskegon River: Linking hydrologic models with an individual-based model for steelhead
10:00AM - 10:30AM Sylvie Guénette
The causes of the decline of Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska: perspective using ecosystem modeling
10:30AM - 11:00AM Break
  Natural Resources 101
Chair:  Ken Lyon
Natural Resources 201
Chair:  Beth Burroughs
11:00AM - 11:30AM Fabio Lamantia
Common Resource Exploitation through differentiated harvesting policies:  A bioeconomic dynamical analysis
Vincent Hull
A Model for Oxygen Dynamics in Coastal Lagoons
11:30AM - 12:00PM Magnus Hennlock
International Pollutant Sinks in an Asymmetric Environmental Technology Game
Ken Owens
A Model for Rouge Wave Generation
12:00PM - 12:30PM Giuseppe Di Vita
Exhaustible Resources and Secondary Materials: A Macroeconomic Analysis
Paul Burgess
A Statistical Model of the Area Cleared by a Landmine Removal Vehicle Using Real-time Kinematic Differential GPS and Inertial Sensing Technologies
12:30PM - 1:30PM Lunch Lunch
  Natural Resources 101
Chair:  Bill Coles
Natural Resources 201
Chair:  Mark Rizzardi
1:30PM - 2:00PM Bret Harvey
Using an Individual-based Model to Explore the Responses of Stream Fish to Variation in Turbidity Regimes
Garth Butcher
A Stochastic Watershed Simulation for Regional Fish Modeling
2:00PM - 2:30PM Jock Lawrie
Three formal methods for simplifying ecosystem models
Khatri Netra
Development Of Conceptual Groundwater Model For the Valley Of Kathmandu
2:30PM - 3:00PM Ken Lyon
Optimal Discounting of Non-Rival Benefits from Cleanup at Waste Sites
Andrew Kanarek
An Individual-Based Model for Barnacle Geese during Spring Staging,
Analyzing the Evolution of Traditional Foraging Strategies
3:00PM - 3:30PM Brandy Wiegers
Computational Model of Water Movement in Plant Root Growth Zone
A.M. Puste
Identical model simulation on natural energy recycling in problematic aqua-terrestrial ecosystem for sustainability in Indian subtropics
3:30PM - 4:00PM Won Sop Shin
Benefit-Based Management Model Approach to Recreational Forest Management in Korea
 
RMA Business and Closing Remarks
Natural  Resources 101

Saturday, June 18

Individual-based Models Workshop
Steve Railsback


The conference will be followed by a one-day (June 18) workshop on individual-based modeling. Individual-based models (IBMs) are simulation models that represent a system’s dynamics as emerging from the behavior of the system’s individuals as they interact with each other and their environment. IBMs have many potential advantages for modeling populations and communities: environmental effects can be represented mechanistically and explicitly, adaptive behaviors (e.g., "trait-mediated interactions") and their consequences can be modeled, and processes acting at different (or across) spatial and temporal scales and ecological levels (e.g., individual- vs. population-level) are easily accommodated. IBMs make a wide range of new ecological and resource management problems amenable to modeling analysis.
 
IBMs are now widely used, but they pose unique challenges: IBMs can be very complex and difficult to understand, they often appear highly ad-hoc with little relation to theory, and computer implementation approaches that work for simpler models often doom an IBM to failure.
 
The workshop will be organized around three major challenges in building and using IBMs.

•Complexity: How can a model be designed so it is complex and realistic enough to solve important, real problems, while otherwise being as simple as possible? What techniques can determine which variables and processes should be included vs. excluded?
• Theoretical and conceptual bases: The essential characteristics of most IBMs cannot be described well using either traditional mathematics or conventional ecological theory. What common conceptual basis can we use instead to design and describe IBMs? What is "theory" in models that link individual and system levels? How can this theory be developed and applied?
• Software: For IBMs, software must do more than implement the model; it must also provide a laboratory in which we can observe and conduct experiments on the virtual population in the model. Software development can be a much greater effort for IBMs, but there are specialized platforms that are very helpful. What is the appropriate platform for a particular IBM, and how can modelers get started using it?

The workshop will introduce NetLogo, a widely used, high-level platform appropriate for IBMs of moderate complexity and prototypes. Also introduced will be Swarm and RePast, which are essentially programming languages specifically for IBMs. Recommendations for selecting and learning to use these platforms will be provided.

The workshop will include exercises implementing models in the NetLogo
and Repast software platforms. Computers with these packages installed
will be available for participants, but people who wish to use their own
computers are encouraged to install the software in advance.

NetLogo 2.1 is available at:
http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/download.shtml

The Repast Suite is available at:
http://repast.sourceforge.net/download.html


Preliminary Agenda:
 
Time Topic
9:00  Introductions
9:15  What are IBMs? Why use IBMs? What are the benefits and problems of using IBMs?
9:30  A conceptual framework for IBMs: How do we describe and design models that are not described well by traditional mathematics?
10:30  Break
10:45  Getting started: How to design an IBM so it is "as simple as possible, but not simpler".
11:00  Introduction to the NetLogo modeling platform. NetLogo provides a simple programming language and graphical interface for simple IBMs
and prototypes.
12:00  Lunch
13:00  Analyzing IBMs: What to do once your model runs. How do you do theoretical or management science with an IBM?
13:30  Software for IBMs: Why is software a big deal? What tools are available? How do you adequately test an IBM's software?
14:00  Introduction to Repast, a widely used programming environment for complex IBMs.
16:00  Wrapup
16:30  Change of habitat and biochemically facilitated discussion.
 
The workshop is organized by Steve Railsback (Lang, Railsback & Assoc. and Humboldt State University). Dr. Railsback has over 10 years experience managing and conducting development of IBMs and their software, and applying IBMs to natural resource management issues. He co-authored the new book Individual-based Modeling and Ecology, which provides extensive treatment of the topics covered in the workshop.

Other participants will include a representative of the Repast development team at Argonne National Laboratory; and Andrew Kanarek and Steve Jackson (current and former students in the Humboldt State environmental modeling program who are experienced users of the NetLogo and Swarm software platforms).