INDEX
OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY
Professor Steven
Hackett, Director
February 1997
| Key Statistics | Leading Indicators |
|---|
| County: | Seasonally Adjusted | % Change
in Jan. |
| Median Home Price (Jan)* | $117,500 | Help Wanted Advertising | 40.23% |
| 30 Yr. Mortgage Rate (2/28) | 7.875% | Building Permits | -14.76% |
| Prime Rate (2/28) | 8.25% | Unemployment
Claims | -3.93% |
| Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 8.2% | Manufacturing Orders | 6.54% |
*Home price data are provided by the Humboldt County Board of Realtors
Monthly Change
The economy of Humboldt County remained stable in the month of
January. The seasonally adjusted index increased from 99.8 in December to
100, a 0.2 percent increase in the index of economic activity
for Humboldt County. There was a decline in home
sales and manufacturing, while employment, retail sales, hospitality,
and energy all experienced growth in January. The non-seasonally
adjusted index decreased from 104.8 in December to 100.4 in
January, a decrease of 4.38 percent. It is typical for the economy's
level of activity to peak in late summer, and then fall from
September until January when it bottoms out. We should expect the
non-seasonally adjusted index to start increasing in February.
Quarterly Change
We also compare the economy's performance over a longer period
of time by comparing the two previous "rolling" quarters.
The economy in the current rolling quarter (November,
December, and January) decreased as compared with the previous
rolling quarter (August, September, and October). The
composite index decreased from 104.1 to 101.2 basis points, a
decline of 2.79 percent. All sectors except for employment decreased in the current quarter.
Hospitality declined sharply from 91.2 to 74.7, due to the heavy
rains and road closures in late December and early January.
Leading Indicators
We track four leading indicators to indicate direction of change
in the economy in the coming month. These are help-wanted advertising,
building permits issued, manufacturing orders, and claims for
unemployment insurance. Help-wanted advertising increased by 40 percent in January, suggesting a rebound
in employment. The optimism in the labor market is reinforced by the
falling unemployment insurance calims.
Manufacturing orders also increased, while building permits declined.
Given the strong signals from help wanted
advertising and unemployment insurance claims, we predict that the
seasonally adjusted index of economic activity for
Humboldt County will increase in February.
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