INDEX
OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY
Professor Steven
Hackett, Director
March 1997
| Key Statistics | Leading Indicators |
|---|
| County: | Seasonally Adjusted | %Change
in Feb. |
| Median Home Price (Feb)* | $105,000 | Help Wanted Advertising | -12.88 |
| 30 Yr. Mortgage Rate (3/31) | 8.25% | Building Permits | 24.18 |
| Prime Rate (3/31) | 8.50% | Unemployment
Claims | -22.69 |
| Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 8.1% | Manufacturing Orders | 6.56 |
*Home price data are provided by the Humboldt County Board of Realtors
Monthly Change
The index of economic activity for Humboldt County increased strongly
in the month of February. The seasonally adjusted index increased from 100.7 in January to
106.7, an increase of 5.91 percent. Part of the increase
in February was due to a dramatic one-time
increase in sales of one of our reporting retailers due to an expansion in
store size. But even without this expansion, the index still would have increased a healthy 3.08 percent. The
base month for the index is
January 1994 in which the index value is set at 100.
The housing, manufacturing, retail sales, and hospitality sectors were all up in
February. The employment and energy sectors declined very slightly.
Other than the one-time increase in retail sales, the construction industry
and orders for durable goods seemed to be driving much of February's
increase. The unusually dry weather is undoubtedly an important factor
explaining this surge in demand.
The chart below plots the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally
adjusted index values from January 1994 to February 1997. The non-seasonally
adjusted index also increased strongly from 99.8 to 106.7.
Quarterly Change
We also look at the economy's performance over a longer period
of time by comparing the two previous "rolling" quarters.
The economy in the current rolling quarter (December, January, and February)
decreased as compared with the previous
rolling quarter (September, October,and November). The
composite index decreased from 104.5 to 102.4, a
decline of 2.01 percent. This reflects the weak economy in the months
of December and January. The chart below plots the quarterly index values for each
sector in the index. All sectors except for employment and retail
sales decreased in the current quarter relative to the previous quarter.
Leading Indicators
We track four leading indicators to indicate direction of change
in the economy in the coming month. These are help-wanted advertising,
building permits issued, manufacturing orders, and claims for
unemployment insurance. Help-wanted advertising decreased by nearly 13 percent in
February, suggesting a slowing economy. However,
permits and orders were up, and claims for unemployment insurance fell.
These three indicators suggest that the economy will continue its growth trend.
Given the strong signals from these leading indicators, we predict that the
seasonally adjusted index of economic activity for
Humboldt County will increase in March, implying continued economic
growth.
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