| County: | Seasonally Adjusted | in April | |
| Median Home Price (April)* | Help Wanted Advertising | ||
| 30 Yr. Mortgage Rate (05/24) | Building Permits | ||
| Prime Rate (05/24) | Unemployment Claims | ||
| Unemployment Rate (April) | Manufacturing Orders | ||
*Home price data are provided by the Humboldt County Board of
Realtors.
The seasonally adjusted Index of Economic Activity for Humboldt County grew strongly in the month of April, rising from a value of 101.2 in March to 104.7 in April, an increase of 3.5 percent. There were several sectors of the county economy that exhibited dramatic growth in April. One of the most prominent of these was the hospitality sector, which experienced a 31 percent jump in (seasonally adjusted) activity in April. This 31 percent increase reflects an increase in occupancy rates over and above what we would normally expect at this time of year. The seasonally adjusted retail and manufacturing sectors also grew, but by smaller amounts (7.1 and 6.4 percent respectively).
The raw (non-seasonally adjusted) index rose by 7.1 percent, from 105.4 in March to 112.4 in April. Comparing the raw and seasonally adjusted index values provides insight into the normal fluctuations in the Humboldt county economy. In particular, while the raw index rose by 7.1 percent, approximately one-half of that growth can accounted for by normal seasonal change in economic activity that is removed in the seasonally adjusted index series. In this sense growth in the seasonally adjusted Index suggests more economic activity than would normally be explained by seasonal factors (such as weather) alone. For example, the unusually wet winter and spring is likely to have suppressed more than the usual amount of economic activity, such as delayed tourist travel and logging, some of which can be expected to have been deferred to April.
The chart below plots the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted index values from January 1994 to April1998. The seasonally adjusted series is weighted to correct for "normal" monthly variation in the data, and so trends in the seasonally-adjusted index provide a better indication of underlying growth and fundamental change in the economy.
We also look at the performance of the county economy over a longer
period of time by comparing the current and previous rolling quarters
of seasonally adjusted data. The quarterly index value for the
current rolling quarter (February through April) is 102.5, down
slightly from the value of 104 in previous rolling quarter (November
through January). From a seasonally adjusted perspective, the current
rolling quarter was weaker in all sectors except home sales, which
rose rather sharply.
We track four leading indicators to get a sense of the direction of change in the county economy in the near future. The four leading indicators are (I) number of help-wanted advertisements in the Times Standard, (ii) number of building permits issued, (iii) volume of manufacturing orders, and (iv) number of claims for unemployment insurance. As indicated in the table at the top of the page, three of the four indicators suggest a growing economy-building permits were up sharply, while manufacturing orders and help-wanted advertisements grew more modestly. In contrast, claims for unemployment insurance rose by over 8 percent, despite the fact that the county unemployment rate actually fell. As usual the leading indicators send mixed signals, though the strong growth in building permits suggests that the local economy will grow in the near future.