Voter Participation Rates

Economics 309 -- Humboldt County Wealth Indicators Project 2001

Alicia Wagner

Sources:

California Secretary of State, Elections Division: http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/elections.htm;

Humboldt County Elections Division, Eureka California;

Lindsey McWilliams, Administrative Services, Humboldt County Elections Division, Eureka California.

How are we doing?

Humboldt County has higher participation and registration rates than for the whole of the State of California. However, yearly registration rates have been falling since 1996, and voter turnout rates have fallen for Humboldt County (as well as the State of California) since 1972. As far as political parties are concerned, Republicans have had higher turnout rates in Humboldt County since 1980, although the Democratic Party has held the majority of registered voters and of the vote since 1980. The Green Party has also recently increased in significance in Humboldt County.

Since 1996 Humboldt County has held higher registration rates for those eligible, between 5 and 11 percent higher than the figures for the State of California. This is a significant percentage when looking at the population of Humboldt County. Asked why this might be, Lindsey McWilliams of the Humboldt County Elections division credits it to the interest of the people here. He said that local voters are much more interested in politics and having their voice heard than the average Californian.

However, Mr. McWilliams also suggested that perhaps these figures are not as meaningful as they suggest. While Humboldt County voters are definitely more interested then a lot of California, the data can be skewed. Recently Humboldt County has become more efficient at purging registration duplicates and this would therefore have an effect on the number of people registered. Despite the fact that the differences might not be as large as suggested by the data, it is unlikely that all of the difference can be ascribed to this fact.

Another important aspect to look at is the turnout of people who are registered to vote. We can see that in 2000, only 73 percent of those that were registered to vote actually cast a ballot. While this was slightly higher than the California percentage (71 percent) we can see that all of those people that registered are not voting for one reason or another. These figures have been decreasing since 1972, when the turnout of registered voters at Humboldt County elections was 84 percent. This is a rate of decrease of 18 percent, compared to a 15 percent decrease for the state of California.

Again noting the change in procedures that the Elections Division has gone through that could skew the data, Lindsey McWilliams states that perhaps this drop is due to people becoming cynical in their ìlocal, state, and national governments." Humboldt County citizens are losing the interest that had brought them to the polls.

Perhaps another way to look at voter turnout is to see what percentage of the eligible population is actually voting. In both 1996and 2000, only 59 percent of the eligible population voted. While this is a constant figure (and 7 percent higher than the rates for California), it is still relatively low.

Humboldt County voters can also be looked at along party lines. Registered Republicans have had a higher percentage turnout at every election since the 1980 presidential election. Perhaps this is due to the demographics (age, employment circumstances) of the two major parties. Since 1992, when they were first eligible to hold primaries, the Green party has risen sharply in their turnout.

When looking at the makeup of both registered voters and the turnout of voters, we can see that the Republican Party has remained almost constant since 1980, at about 30 to 31 percent. The Democratic Party, on the other hand, has had a decreased influence on voters in Humboldt County. From a peak of 58 percent in 1988, Democrats as part of total registered voters decreased by about 30 percent to 44 percent of voters in 2000. The Green Party became 5 percent of registered voters in 2000, up 67 percent from 1992.

Perhaps it is more important to look at the percentage of the vote that each party contributes. In 2000, the Democratic Party made up about 39 percent of the vote, the first year since the data from 1982 that they were almost equal to that of the Republican Party (36 percent). The Democratic presence of the vote dropped 34 percent by 2000, yet again from a high in 1988. The difference between registration and actual voting turnout can be seen again in the difference between these numbers, with Democrats only losing 34 percent of their voting presence but 40 percent of their registration presence. The Green Party grew in their influence yet again, increasing by 150 percent since 1992.

Why is this important?

Whether or not a community has high levels of social capital is a direct indicator of whether or not they are sustainable or can attain sustainability. Social capital is what a community uses to build what they need or have, and without it, like the absence of the other capitals, a community cannot expect to move far in the direction of sustainability. In places where there social capital exists in sufficient levels, the people are involved with their community, and, in turn, with the politics that would concern that community.

Voting habits and participation are a measure of the degree of social capital that a community has. While they can build social capital in bringing a community together (rallies and meeting concerning why you should vote or believing in a certain candidate or measure often bring together people that would not normally have cohesion), I would say that voting is more of an indicator of where we already are in our social capital. If a community does not have high levels of civic participation, it can be assumed that the social structures and capital that hold them together are not strong and they therefore will not be able to attain sustainability, at least on a strong form basis which would utilize all of the forms of capital.

Humboldt County seems to have higher levels of participation than that for California. We have higher levels of both registration and voter turnout, because, as Lindsey McWilliams said, people are just more interested here. What is happening with the decreases in these numbers should alarm people, for, if we begin to lose one of the three pillars of sustainability, we might see the other two, economic and ecological stability/integrity, fade as well.

Voting can enhance all of the forms of capital, and each of the three pillars of sustainability in that it is the best way for people to voice their opinions and needs. We have seen people or organizations such as trade unions come together and vote and change the laws to address their needs, and this can be the same for a community. What is best for the community and the capital that they have is their collective community voice, and, if they do not turn out to vote, that voice will not be heard. When people begin to lose faith in the system they lose a major outlet in getting what they would need out of it.

The parties that exist in Humboldt County are an indicator as well of what the general beliefs of its citizens are. While the traditionally ìliberalî Democrats are losing power, we can see the Green party grabbing a small stronghold. Perhaps this fact will hold negative implications for Humboldt Countyís presence in national and state politics. However, this is a good thing for Humboldt County itself, in that the people voting under this party name tend to be more for the sustainability of the natural capital that the community has. However, perhaps the strong lines that the parties can draw, as seen with the constant turnout rates of the Republican party, is not a good factor: it can suggest lines drawn in the social capital of the community as well and an inability to communicate. Perhaps what is needed is more cohesion, if possible, among Humboldt County voters.

Voting is an essential part of a community. If the population becomes cynical and no longer cares about the government that is supposed to be there for their use, then that population loses a part of its social capital and one of the best outlets for change. Hopefully the trends that we have seen in Humboldt County in voting turnouts will not continue so that we can sustain the pillar of democratic process and in the process that of the other two pillars of sustainability which will be protected by communities voicing their needs through the vote.